Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Time to Buy Some Gold?

With the price of gold more than 15% below its all-time high set last autumn, one might wonder whether the bull market is over.  I don't think it is.  

Central banks continue to inject unprecedented funds into the financial system, resulting in negative real short-term interest rates.  Gold has done well during such periods.  In addition, gold is entering a seasonally strong period, which was in evidence each of the last two years with troughs in May/June and a surge into September (or beyond).

Furthermore, gold is having its worst month in thirteen years and sentiment measures reflect widespread pessimism (a good sign).  Commercial buyers, considered the "smart money," are optimistic about gold's prospects.  

Given these considerations, I'd make sure that my portfolio contained some gold.

Steve Lehman

Gold:  $1,565

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